Y.-C. Chang (Taiwan)
Temporary water transfer, Risk analysis, Risk shift
Water transfers were common ways to solve the growth of water consumption and drought in many regions. For the temporary water transfer, it was deficient to discuss if it introduces deficit risk shift. In this study, the historical information of Chia Nan Irrigation Association has been utilized as the foundation. Through the risk analysis, it was able to examine whether the temporary water transfer causes deficit risk shift. The results show that the possibility of water deficit rate formed a normal distribution during normal period. When the amount of water transfer was increased during 1995-1996 the water deficit risk were raise 1%~2% compare to the average risk. In other words, when the amount of water transfer was increased, the overall irrigation has to face higher water deficit rate. Temporary water transfer introduces deficit risk shift indeed in Chia Nan area.
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